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David Achu

Eager Viewer

Jan. 14, 2025

The Inherent Value in Hypotheticals, and Other Rationalizations

In an era of increasing competition in practically all fields, one may not want to take risks to avoid the potential harms. However, in the case of the TikTok ban, it is not wrong to make a video concerning it for many reasons. It would still get views, you can still discuss larger issues with this as a hypothetical, and the low risk of TikTok not being banned.

One may believe that if one were to make a vieo about something that does not happen, they would be a laughingstock. While this may be true, but likely is not, as will be discussed later, it does not mean you will not get engagement on the video. Commenters have stated “[D]avid[,] [I]’d listen to you talk abut different types of soil for 10 hours[,] i [sic] really don’t know what you’re worried about here” (springbreaksloose), “we like hearing you yap” (plantix) and “[y]our videos are relentlessly engaging and I will watch whatever you put out” (CJ Watkins). Given this, there is little risk involved with publishing your video.

Given TikTok is not banned, your video would still provide value. In your videos, you tend to discuss larger societal and cultural issues. For example, in a [sic] stupid video essay about the use of emojis, you discussed Ancient Greek writing practices, Japanese pop culture, internet history, encoding standards, and linguistics (David Achu). Even if emoji did not exist, the video still would contain useful and entertaining content about the topics mentioned in the video. A video discussing the sociopolitcal implications of TikTok, its ban, the disparity of the age of politicians and the majority of Americans, or any or all of these topics or many more would all be interesting in its own right—and even a video about a false prediction provides historical value, and your video, being unlike the majority, would provide unique value for both you down the road and for the people of the future, even if the video was not used for its intended function.

Even if the video provided no value, it would still be worth the risk to create the video. Judging from lay-predictions collected by Manifold Market on their official or partner questions, there is, on average, a 73% chance that TikTok will be banned or limited in some way. A nearly 3 in 4 chance of releasing a video way before your competition would provide a large leg up against others.

Given that you are likely to still get large amounts of engagement, as you create videos which you-yourself admit are good watched in the background; your followerbase’s claims; the high chance of a TikTok bad;, and the possible value, both historical and incidental, it is well within your best interest to create and publish the video.

Sources Cited

Achu, David. “a stupid video about the use of emojis.” YouTube, Sept 13 2024, www.youtube.com/watch?v=KTBubB2uTYo.

Chris. “Will Bytedance's deadline to divest from Tiktok be delayed past January 19th?" manifold.markets, 202X, https://manifold.markets/Manifold/what-will-be-the-status-of-tiktok-i-R89nIPdNs2.

Manifold. “What will be the status of TikTok in the US on April 1st 2025?" manifold.markets, 202X, https://manifold.markets/Manifold/what-will-be-the-status-of-tiktok-i-R89nIPdNs2.

plantix. Response to “Post from David Achu” YouTube, Jan 14 2025, www.youtube.com/channel/UCFZHhzU1hVeRqvgor5Jl3iQ/community?lb=Ugkxz-Yz8hcknFxdDQnGkdOeg3pT0qzDhMCB.

springbreaksloose. Response to “Post from David Achu” YouTube, Jan 14 2025, www.youtube.com/channel/UCFZHhzU1hVeRqvgor5Jl3iQ/community?lb=Ugkxz-Yz8hcknFxdDQnGkdOeg3pT0qzDhMCB.

Watkins, CJ. Response to “Post from David Achu” YouTube, Jan 14 2025, www.youtube.com/channel/UCFZHhzU1hVeRqvgor5Jl3iQ/community?lb=Ugkxz-Yz8hcknFxdDQnGkdOeg3pT0qzDhMCB.